burr · starbucks

Starbucks: operating scenarios

USD millions. FY2024–FY2025 reported history; FY2026–FY2030 illustrative assumptions. Frozen FY2025 business perimeter.

Reported observations and modeled forecasts are separate series. Forecasts reflect assumptions. Matching line names do not establish identical metric definitions; check comparability. Ratios display as percentages; downloadable data retains raw values.

Revenue{"entity":"starbucks","fingerprints":{"base":"d28711564727a9cb3345b0a73aa9645b945fc0df9af46227361ab723f5d857f1","bear":"e50c8dfc611a96b8c1ddf9b607d77ae4d9623c984c6d3139e477afab53406967","bull":"19bb11b3f9f7a088412741269728022d8a0e56e339d76d4622d036a0da39a709"},"kind":"series","note":"USD millions. FY2024–FY2025 reported history; FY2026–FY2030 illustrative assumptions. Frozen FY2025 business perimeter.","ok":true,"panels":[{"line":"revenue","rows":[{"kind":"reported","line":"revenue","period":2024,"provenance":"companies/starbucks/actuals.csv","scenario":"actuals","value":36176.2},{"kind":"reported","line":"revenue","period":2025,"provenance":"companies/starbucks/actuals.csv","scenario":"actuals","value":37184.4},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2026,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"base","value":39003.942819200005},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2027,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"base","value":41081.202513628115},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2028,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"base","value":43447.98552367938},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2029,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"base","value":46142.060806304624},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2030,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"base","value":49208.23955432948},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2026,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bear","value":38684.073919999995},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2027,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bear","value":40244.231632768},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2028,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bear","value":41867.31256218782},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2029,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bear","value":43555.85452001446},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2030,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bear","value":45312.49767414986},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2026,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bull","value":39643.680617599995},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2027,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bull","value":42356.62633108195},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2028,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bull","value":45353.796089030635},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2029,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bull","value":48670.05838628044},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"revenue","period":2030,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue","scenario":"bull","value":52345.257670465704}],"unit":"currency_m"}],"scenario_theses":{"bear":"Customer visits stagnate and investment fails to restore margins.","bull":"Better service restores visits and supports higher margins."},"title":"Starbucks: operating scenarios"} Revenue Currency (millions) Shaded: modeled forecast 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Reported, 2024: 36176.2; companies/starbucks/actuals.csv Reported, 2025: 37184.4; companies/starbucks/actuals.csv Reported base forecast, 2026: 39003.9428192; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue base forecast, 2027: 41081.2025136; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue base forecast, 2028: 43447.9855237; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue base forecast, 2029: 46142.0608063; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue base forecast, 2030: 49208.2395543; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue base forecast bear forecast, 2026: 38684.07392; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bear forecast, 2027: 40244.2316328; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bear forecast, 2028: 41867.3125622; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bear forecast, 2029: 43555.85452; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bear forecast, 2030: 45312.4976741; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bear forecast bull forecast, 2026: 39643.6806176; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bull forecast, 2027: 42356.6263311; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bull forecast, 2028: 45353.796089; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bull forecast, 2029: 48670.0583863; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bull forecast, 2030: 52345.2576705; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue bull forecast
Inspect data and provenance
PeriodScenarioKindValueProvenance
2024actualsreported36176.2companies/starbucks/actuals.csv
2025actualsreported37184.4companies/starbucks/actuals.csv
2026baseforecast39003.942819200005templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2027baseforecast41081.202513628115templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2028baseforecast43447.98552367938templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2029baseforecast46142.060806304624templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2030baseforecast49208.23955432948templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2026bearforecast38684.073919999995templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2027bearforecast40244.231632768templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2028bearforecast41867.31256218782templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2029bearforecast43555.85452001446templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2030bearforecast45312.49767414986templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2026bullforecast39643.680617599995templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2027bullforecast42356.62633108195templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2028bullforecast45353.796089030635templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2029bullforecast48670.05838628044templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
2030bullforecast52345.257670465704templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.revenue
EBIT{"entity":"starbucks","fingerprints":{"base":"d28711564727a9cb3345b0a73aa9645b945fc0df9af46227361ab723f5d857f1","bear":"e50c8dfc611a96b8c1ddf9b607d77ae4d9623c984c6d3139e477afab53406967","bull":"19bb11b3f9f7a088412741269728022d8a0e56e339d76d4622d036a0da39a709"},"kind":"series","note":"USD millions. FY2024–FY2025 reported history; FY2026–FY2030 illustrative assumptions. Frozen FY2025 business perimeter.","ok":true,"panels":[{"line":"ebit","rows":[{"kind":"reported","line":"ebit","period":2024,"provenance":"companies/starbucks/actuals.csv","scenario":"actuals","value":5408.8},{"kind":"reported","line":"ebit","period":2025,"provenance":"companies/starbucks/actuals.csv","scenario":"actuals","value":2936.6},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2026,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"base","value":3900.3942819200006},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2027,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"base","value":4518.932276499093},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2028,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"base","value":5213.758262841526},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2029,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"base","value":5998.467904819601},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2030,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"base","value":6889.153537606127},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2026,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bear","value":3094.7259136},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2027,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bear","value":3420.7596887852806},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2028,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bear","value":3768.0581305969035},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2029,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bear","value":4137.806179401374},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2030,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bear","value":4531.249767414986},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2026,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bull","value":4757.241674112},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2027,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bull","value":5506.361423040654},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2028,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bull","value":6349.53145246429},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2029,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bull","value":7300.508757942066},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"ebit","period":2030,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit","scenario":"bull","value":8375.241227274513}],"unit":"currency_m"}],"scenario_theses":{"bear":"Customer visits stagnate and investment fails to restore margins.","bull":"Better service restores visits and supports higher margins."},"title":"Starbucks: operating scenarios"} EBIT Currency (millions) Shaded: modeled forecast 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Reported, 2024: 5408.8; companies/starbucks/actuals.csv Reported, 2025: 2936.6; companies/starbucks/actuals.csv Reported base forecast, 2026: 3900.39428192; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit base forecast, 2027: 4518.9322765; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit base forecast, 2028: 5213.75826284; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit base forecast, 2029: 5998.46790482; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit base forecast, 2030: 6889.15353761; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit base forecast bear forecast, 2026: 3094.7259136; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bear forecast, 2027: 3420.75968879; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bear forecast, 2028: 3768.0581306; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bear forecast, 2029: 4137.8061794; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bear forecast, 2030: 4531.24976741; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bear forecast bull forecast, 2026: 4757.24167411; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bull forecast, 2027: 5506.36142304; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bull forecast, 2028: 6349.53145246; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bull forecast, 2029: 7300.50875794; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bull forecast, 2030: 8375.24122727; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit bull forecast
Inspect data and provenance
PeriodScenarioKindValueProvenance
2024actualsreported5408.8companies/starbucks/actuals.csv
2025actualsreported2936.6companies/starbucks/actuals.csv
2026baseforecast3900.3942819200006templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2027baseforecast4518.932276499093templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2028baseforecast5213.758262841526templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2029baseforecast5998.467904819601templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2030baseforecast6889.153537606127templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2026bearforecast3094.7259136templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2027bearforecast3420.7596887852806templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2028bearforecast3768.0581305969035templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2029bearforecast4137.806179401374templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2030bearforecast4531.249767414986templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2026bullforecast4757.241674112templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2027bullforecast5506.361423040654templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2028bullforecast6349.53145246429templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2029bullforecast7300.508757942066templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
2030bullforecast8375.241227274513templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.ebit
FCFF{"entity":"starbucks","fingerprints":{"base":"d28711564727a9cb3345b0a73aa9645b945fc0df9af46227361ab723f5d857f1","bear":"e50c8dfc611a96b8c1ddf9b607d77ae4d9623c984c6d3139e477afab53406967","bull":"19bb11b3f9f7a088412741269728022d8a0e56e339d76d4622d036a0da39a709"},"kind":"series","note":"USD millions. FY2024–FY2025 reported history; FY2026–FY2030 illustrative assumptions. Frozen FY2025 business perimeter.","ok":true,"panels":[{"line":"fcff","rows":[{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2026,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"base","value":2186.8338843104},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2027,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"base","value":2659.543871382486},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2028,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"base","value":3189.539261313089},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2029,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"base","value":3787.445056472355},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2030,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"base","value":4465.8344640378145},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2026,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bear","value":1594.73762624},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2027,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bear","value":1860.2757324847364},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2028,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bear","value":2144.63863464537},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2029,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bear","value":2448.9128684842913},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2030,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bear","value":2774.241992714584},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2026,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bull","value":2805.1593921152003},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2027,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bull","value":3366.038661965229},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2028,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bull","value":3999.221354809269},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2029,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bull","value":4715.507990507058},{"entity":"starbucks","kind":"forecast","line":"fcff","period":2030,"provenance":"templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff","scenario":"bull","value":5527.438585056126}],"unit":"currency_m"}],"scenario_theses":{"bear":"Customer visits stagnate and investment fails to restore margins.","bull":"Better service restores visits and supports higher margins."},"title":"Starbucks: operating scenarios"} FCFF Currency (millions) Shaded: modeled forecast 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 base forecast, 2026: 2186.83388431; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff base forecast, 2027: 2659.54387138; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff base forecast, 2028: 3189.53926131; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff base forecast, 2029: 3787.44505647; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff base forecast, 2030: 4465.83446404; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff base forecast bear forecast, 2026: 1594.73762624; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bear forecast, 2027: 1860.27573248; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bear forecast, 2028: 2144.63863465; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bear forecast, 2029: 2448.91286848; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bear forecast, 2030: 2774.24199271; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bear forecast bull forecast, 2026: 2805.15939212; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bull forecast, 2027: 3366.03866197; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bull forecast, 2028: 3999.22135481; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bull forecast, 2029: 4715.50799051; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bull forecast, 2030: 5527.43858506; templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff bull forecast
Inspect data and provenance
PeriodScenarioKindValueProvenance
2026baseforecast2186.8338843104templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2027baseforecast2659.543871382486templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2028baseforecast3189.539261313089templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2029baseforecast3787.445056472355templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2030baseforecast4465.8344640378145templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2026bearforecast1594.73762624templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2027bearforecast1860.2757324847364templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2028bearforecast2144.63863464537templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2029bearforecast2448.9128684842913templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2030bearforecast2774.241992714584templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2026bullforecast2805.1593921152003templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2027bullforecast3366.038661965229templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2028bullforecast3999.221354809269templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2029bullforecast4715.507990507058templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
2030bullforecast5527.438585056126templates/coffee_chain.yaml:lines.fcff
Scenario theses